Weekly Beeps - Markets End 3rd Consecutive Week On Negative Note; IIP + RBI Policy Review + Railway + Union Budget – Eventful Week Ahead 11-03-2012

Seven weeks up and three weeks down; that is the YTD score as far as the Indian markets are concerned. The degree of damage this week was minimal,partly due to a public holiday and partly because of Friday’s rally. The key indices rebounded from 200-DMA, which could be seen as a sign of resilience. But, we need to see decisive and bold policy action from the Centre if the main indices are to rise substantially from here.

Benchmark Indices
Index	2-Mar-12	9-Mar-12	% Change
SENSEX	17636.80	17503.24	-0.76
NIFTY	5359.35	5333.55	-0.48
Hang Seng	21562.26	21086.00	-2.21
Nikkei	9777.03	9929.74	1.56
Shanghai	2460.69	2439.46	-0.86
Dow Jones*	12980.30	12907.94	-0.56
S&P 500*	1374.09	1365.91	-0.60
NASDAQ*	2988.97	2970.42	-0.62
Bovespa*	66809.80	66908.39	0.15
FTSE*	5931.25	5859.73	-1.21
DAX*	6941.77	6834.54	-1.54
CAC*	3499.73	3478.36	-0.61
* closing till Thursday

For a major part of the week the markets remained on a subdued and negative note, owing to the dismal defeat that Congress faced in the recently concluded assembly elections in the states of UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand. However, on Friday, the markets turned positive as the sentiments on the streets were charged up by the MCX IPO listing at a premium and as traders and investors retorted to some short covering. Late evening the RBI announced a cut in the CRR by 75 bps to 4.75 per cent in order to inject liquidity into the system worth Rs 48,000 crore. This development by the RBI is very positive for the bank stocks as it will empower them with higher credit facility.

Key Global Indicators
Index	2-Mar-12	9-Mar-12	% Change
Gold	28,027	27,940	-0.31
Silver	58,702	58,796	0.16
Crude Oil (Brent)	125	125	0.07
Crude Oil (Nymex)	108	107	-1.22

On the global front, most markets ended the week on a weak and subdued note with the exception of Nikkei which managed to cross the 10,000 mark after seven months. Amongst major global developments which kept the markets subdued were China’s decision to cut the country’s growth target to 7.5 per cent for 2012 from the goal of 8 per cent in place since 2005 in a bid to find leeway for the promised economic and welfare reforms while delivering stability ahead of a leadership transition later this year. However, on Thursday, the markets were lifted as Greece completed a crucial debt swap with private creditors on clearing the way for the country to substantially lower its debt burden and moving it closer to receiving a badly needed second official bailout.

Currency Rate
Index	2-Mar-12	9-Mar-12	% Change
USD	49.50	50.11	1.23
EURO	65.59	66.48	1.35
GBP	78.82	78.96	0.18
JYP (per 100)	60.75	61.18	0.70

After witnessing some heavy volatility during the month of February 2012, the global oil prices have managed to find some calm as the prices remained flat throughout the week. The FII turnover for this week was positive at Rs 1,235 crore, despite the markets having ended on a negative note. However, rupee woes have seemed to re-enter the markets as it depreciated by 1.2 per cent during the week to levels of over Rs 50.

Back home, among the sectoral indices, the metals’ index was the worst performer as it tanked by almost 4 per cent. This was due to a cut in the GDP forecast by China, signalling subdued demand. Oil and gas also closed down by 3 per cent due to a major disappointment with the ONGC FPO. On the other hand, indices like consumer durables, automobiles, FMCG, Bankex, etc closed on the higher side.

Top Losers
Scrip	CMP	% Change (WoW)
Adani Enter	317.80	-13.17
Hindalco	134.60	-10.65
Pantaloon	162.55	-10.49
Chambal Fert	79.90	-8.37
SterliteInds	114.45	-7.74
MANAPRMGNFIN	38.75	-7.19
Mundra Port	135.40	-7.04
Essar Oils	57.65	-7.02
SAIL	94.85	-6.96
Hind Zinc	131.75	-6.92

Among the individual stocks, CESC was the lead gainer, up by almost 9 per cent during the week on the back of reports that it had hiked the power tariff which will result into better revenue, thus boosting the bottomline. Other stocks like Piramal Healthcare, Max India, Yes Bank, etc were among the stocks which moved northwards. On the other hand, Adani Enterprise was the leading loser - down by almost 13 per cent due to news reports about the government probing alleged money laundering by the company.

Top Gainers
Scrip	CMP	% Change (WoW)
CESC	290.50	9.27
Piram.Health	483.20	9.03
Max India	174.60	7.71
Yes Bank	365.10	7.37
Tech Mahindr	639.90	7.27
Reliance Pow	131.00	6.9
IDFC	145.55	6.16
BritaniaInds	554.25	5.6
CastrolIndia	507.30	5.6
SyndicateBan	115.30	5.49

Pantaloons was down by around 10 per cent on the back of speculation that the government may come out with a populist budget and may not allow FDI in multi-brand retail. Other metal stocks like Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc and Sterlite Industries were among the top losers on the back of China forecasting lower GDP growth rate.

In conclusion, we expect the volatility to continue on the bourses next week as big events next week on the domestic calendar will be the RBI policy meet and the Union Budget. IIP, inflation data and advance tax numbers are also due next week. On the global front, watch out for the FOMC policy meeting.

Given the number of important events, things are likely to be quite choppy next week. Therefore, one needs to take a measured approach. Examine the outcomes of various events before jumping the gun.

Weekly Technical Analysis of the Indian Stock & Share Market

Most Active Stocks

The 20 most active stocks traded in terms of value of shares traded and their weekly % change.

Security Name	Close	% Change
STATE BANK	2226.40	-1.09
ICICI BANK	914.20	1.02
RELIANCE INDS	773.80	-4.88
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE	639.45	2.85
TATA MOTORS	280.65	4.73
LARSEN & TOUBRO	1302.35	0.26
RELIANCE POWER	131.10	1.70
AXIS BANK	1213.40	3.52
TATA STEEL	455.20	-2.66
HDFC	680.50	1.77
INFOSYS	2855.30	-0.10
DLF	204.05	0.44
HOUSING DEV & INFRA	104.05	-1.47
RELIANCE CAPITAL	420.25	-1.64
JAIPRAKASH ASSOC	78.20	5.03
HINDALCO	134.60	-8.94
JSW STEEL	748.10	-4.95
MAHINDRA & MAHIN	676.95	-0.20
ITC	208.25	1.58
BHEL	278.75	-5.88

Biggest Weekly % Gainers

The following list shows the stocks (over Rs.10/share) that had the biggest gains over last week. Gains are measured on a percentage basis. For example, a stock moving from 20 to 25 had a 5 point or 25% gain. Often stocks appearing on this list had some type of positive news (e.g., big earnings report, new product announcement, etc.).

Security Name	Close	% Change
NEHA INTERNATIONAL	50.75	30.13
GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE	285.05	25.93
WHEELS (I)	600.40	17.91
SE INVESTMENTS	307.10	17.57
SUPREME PETROCHE	56.35	17.40
SANGHVI FORGING AND ENGINEERING	54.40	15.87
BINANI INDS	136.00	15.50
GOA CARBON	79.70	12.97
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CO	42.90	12.60
AP PAPER MILLS	180.15	12.03
ADVANTA (I)	364.30	11.99
SUPREME INFRASTRUCTURE (I)	242.85	10.49

Biggest Weekly % Losers

The following list shows the stocks (over Rs.10/share) that had the biggest losses over last week. Losses are measured on a percentage basis. For example, a stock moving from 20 to 15 had a 5 point or 25% loss. Often stocks appearing on this list had some type of negative news (e.g., bad earnings report, lower analyst rating, product delay announcement, etc.).

Security Name	Close	% Change
RESPONSIVE INDS	86.45	-23.46
VLS FINANCE	16.00	-19.60
SURYA PHARMACEUTICALS	11.75	-16.07
RAVI KUMAR DISTILLERIES	12.15	-14.13
BHAGYANAGAR (I)	16.15	-12.70
KINGFISHER AIRLINES	21.00	-12.68
EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES	33.95	-12.27
HBL POWER SYSTEMS	16.05	-12.05
INDIAN HUME PIPE	107.40	-11.75
DQ ENTERTAINMENT (INTERNATIONAL)	22.55	-11.74
PANTALOON RETAIL	162.55	-11.61
ADANI ENTERPRISE	317.55	-11.55
ELECTROTHERM	80.05	-11.50
GOENKA DIAMOND & JEWELS	59.95	-11.19
STERLING BIOTECH	11.15	-11.16
EIH	87.90	-10.76
HINDUJA FOUNDRIES	59.50	-10.53
ICSA (I)	22.95	-10.53
MADHUCON PROJECTS	58.50	-10.28
JUBILANT INDUSTRIES	281.75	-10.18
EON ELECTRIC	35.55	-10.11

Stocks with Bullish Engulfing Patterns.

The following stocks have been trending downward in the short and intermediate terms and have formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The probability of an upward reversal in prices has increased.

Security Name	Close
ABB	846.45
ALSTOM PROJECTS	373.20
EMMBI POLYARNS	13.85
GOA CARBON	79.70
KWALITY DAIRY (I)	40.60
MARG	90.90
MIRZA INTL	19.70
MUTHOOT FINANCE	163.60

Stocks with Bearish Engulfing Patterns.

The following stocks have been trending upward in the short and intermediate terms and have formed a bearish engulfing pattern. The probability of a downward reversal in prices has increased.

Security Name	Close
BHARAT PETROLEUM	664.30
GRAVITA (I)	702.25
MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS	318.95
ORACLE FINANCIAL SERVICES SOFTWARE	2575.40
TEXMO PIPES & PRODUCTS	23.10

% Volume Change

The following list shows all stocks whose volumes surged by more than 100% this week compared to the previous week. Upward price movement on large volume change is a bullish (positive) sign for the stock if the stock has been flat or trending downward. Downward price movement on large volume change is a bearish (negative) sign for the stock if the stock has been flat or trending upward. Stocks are arranged in descending order of volume change.

Security Name	Close	% Change	Volume	% Change
SUPREME PETROCHE	56.35	17.39	1029113	3042
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CO	42.90	12.59	471909	1365
AP PAPER MILLS	180.15	12.03	2184658	1017
GOA CARBON	79.70	12.96	323099	847
BINANI INDS	136.00	15.49	333613	773
WHEELS (I)	600.40	17.91	1244075	302
RAVI KUMAR DISTILLERIES	12.15	-14.14	267436	288
SUPREME INFRASTRUCTURE (I)	242.85	10.48	308454	202
GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE	285.05	25.93	4856516	177
SURYA PHARMACEUTICALS	11.75	-16.08	1033274	125
HINDUJA FOUNDRIES	59.50	-10.53	4761	104

New Intermediate Uptrend

Prices of stocks (and other entities) rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices.

The following list shows all stocks & indices beginning a new intermediate uptrend. A new intermediate uptrend normally begins with an upside breakout when demand outstrips supply after a series of falling tops and bottoms.

Security Name	Close
ADVANTA (I)	364.30
ANSAL HOUSING	45.75
AP PAPER MILLS	180.15
BINANI INDS	136.00
CASTROL (I)	507.95
COLGATE PALMOLIV	1062.80
GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE	285.05
NATCO PHARMA	296.15
SUPREME PETROCHE	56.35
TIME TECHNOPLAST	54.80

New Intermediate Downtrend

Prices of stocks (and other entities) rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices.

The following list shows all stocks beginning a new intermediate downtrend. A new intermediate downtrend normally begins with a breakdown when supply soaks up all demand after a series of rising tops and bottoms.

Security Name	Close
ALEMBIC	17.10
INOX LEISURE	47.55
ISMT	27.95
JYOTI STRUCTURE	45.10
MAHINDRA HOLIDAYS & RESORTS (I)	278.15
MANGALORE CHEMICALS & FERTILIZERS	39.20
MICRO TECHNOLOGIES (I)	166.90
RESPONSIVE INDS	86.45
SURYA PHARMACEUTICALS	11.75
TECPRO SYSTEMS	162.90

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