After witnessing a stellar rally in the month of Jan 2012, markets have continued the robust performance into the month of Feb. The SENSEX has rallied by a good 2 per cent for the week ended 3rd Feb 2012. With this the markets have managed to end on a positive note for a 5th week in a row.
Five winning weeks in a row have clearly stunned most market players after last year’s disappointment. The Nifty has convincingly crossed its 200-DMA and has also closed above it for the past four sessions. The Sensex too has pierced the crucial technical barrier. The manner in which the market has rallied has raised expectations of more gains. However, one must not loose sight of the risks confronting the market – both domestic as well as external.
Benchmark Indices | |||
| Index | 27-Jan-12 | 3-Feb-12 | % Change |
| SENSEX | 17233.98 | 17604.96 | 2.15 |
| NIFTY | 5204.70 | 5325.85 | 2.33 |
| Hang Seng | 20501.67 | 20756.98 | 1.25 |
| Nikkei | 8841.22 | 8831.93 | -0.11 |
| Shanghai | 2319.12 | 2330.40 | 0.49 |
| Dow Jones* | 12734.60 | 12705.40 | -0.23 |
| S&P 500* | 1318.43 | 1325.54 | 0.54 |
| NASDAQ* | 2805.28 | 2859.68 | 1.94 |
| Bovespa* | 62953.10 | 64593.10 | 2.61 |
| FTSE* | 5795.20 | 5796.07 | 0.02 |
| DAX* | 6539.85 | 6655.63 | 1.77 |
| CAC* | 3363.23 | 3376.66 | 0.40 |
* closing till Thursday | |||
However, the start to the week was completely opposite to the way it’s ended. On Monday the markets tanked by 2.2 per cent, which was pretty much expected on the back of profit taking by investors and traders. However, as the week progressed, a further improvement in HSBC PMI manufacturing data for month of Jan to 57.5 from 54.2 in Dec 2011 helped cheer market sentiments. A good set of Q3 earning from ICICI bank coupled with decent performance from auto manufacturers on the auto sales front helped buoy the markets.
Key Global Indicators | |||
| Index | 27-Jan-12 | 3-Feb-12 | % Change |
| Gold | 27832 | 28081 | 0.89 |
| Silver | 56876 | 57013 | 0.24 |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | 111.23 | 112.43 | 1.08 |
| Crude Oil (Nymex) | 100.34 | 97.03 | -3.30 |
On the global front, the mood seems a bit mixed and uncertain. While manufacturing data showed an improving trend in China, Germany and US, a contraction in the same data was seen for countries like Spain, Italy and France. Moreover there seems to be no clarity on Greece’s debt woes for now.
Currency Rate | |||
| Index | 27-Jan-12 | 3-Feb-12 | % Change |
| USD | 49.65 | 48.67 | -1.96 |
| EURO | 65.04 | 64.15 | -1.36 |
| GBP | 77.83 | 77.50 | -0.42 |
| JYP (per 100) | 64.45 | 64.17 | -0.43 |
Moving on the rupee seems to be convincingly winning its battle against the dollar. The rupee has managed to break below the Rs 50 levels and currently stands at Rs 48.67 per dollar. As a result of the positive inflows this week, FII net investments in equity now stand at Rs 4040 crore for week ended 03rd Jan 2012.
Sectoral Indices | |||
| Category/Index | 27-Jan-12 | 3-Feb-12 | Change (%) |
| Broad | |||
| MIDCAP | 5,872.36 | 6,046.10 | 2.96 |
| SMLCAP | 6,491.69 | 6,686.55 | 3.00 |
| BSE-100 | 8,982.13 | 9,185.35 | 2.26 |
| BSE-200 | 2,099.47 | 2,150.96 | 2.45 |
| BSE-500 | 6,554.58 | 6,717.47 | 2.49 |
| Sectors | |||
| REALTY | 1,702.98 | 1,784.17 | 4.77 |
| AUTO | 9,197.33 | 9,523.22 | 3.54 |
| IT | 5,721.74 | 5,912.40 | 3.33 |
| BANKEX | 11,282.33 | 11,643.84 | 3.20 |
| TECk | 3,463.78 | 3,569.28 | 3.05 |
| METAL | 11,576.33 | 11,874.99 | 2.58 |
| HC | 6,261.23 | 6,411.72 | 2.40 |
| POWER | 2,122.03 | 2,161.35 | 1.85 |
| OIL&GAS | 8,541.42 | 8,689.19 | 1.73 |
| FMCG | 4,063.87 | 4,120.75 | 1.40 |
| PSU | 7,409.00 | 7,485.77 | 1.04 |
| CG | 10,360.24 | 10,259.55 | -0.97 |
| CD | 6,000.46 | 5,832.41 | -2.80 |
Among the sectoral indices, Realty sector was amongst the top gainers for the week, notching up nearly 5 per cent gains. Auto and IT companies came in next for a second consecutive week at 4 per cent gains. Consumer goods and capital good were the only sectors treading in the red zone. This was mainly on the back of some profit taking by investors and a sharp decline in the share price of BHEL which reported rather week Q3 earnings.
Top Gainers | ||
| Scrip | CMP | % Change (WoW) |
| Tata Tea | 119.15 | 22.46 |
| Sintex Inds | 98.1 | 17.77 |
| Jet Airways | 280 | 15.39 |
| HavellsIndia | 492 | 14.73 |
| JubilantFood | 972.45 | 13.62 |
| Engineers | 266.9 | 12.76 |
| Educomp Solu | 243.3 | 12.38 |
| OrientalBank | 288 | 11.68 |
| ABB | 888 | 11.37 |
| PFC | 186.7 | 11.06 |
Among the individual stocks, Tata Tea was the top gainer as the company finally cemented its deal with Starbucks Coffee to set up retail coffee shops in the country. Sintex Industries, Jet Airways and Havells India were among the other top gainers for the week. Among the top losers, TTK Prestige topped the list. Glenmark Pharma lost 6 per cent as the company reported dismal Q3 earnings. Domestic refiner IOC also lost 5 per cent this week on reports that it will have to pay over Rs 979 crore in unpaid entry tax to the Uttar Pradesh government within two weeks.
Top Losers | ||
| Scrip | CMP | % Change (WoW) |
| TTK Prestige | 2285 | -6.36 |
| GlenmarkPhar | 296.05 | -5.58 |
| IOC | 272.6 | -5.43 |
| GMDC | 176.55 | -4.93 |
| Titan Inds | 196.45 | -4.71 |
| Adani Power | 80.45 | -4.40 |
| Divis Labora | 781.9 | -4.38 |
| Coal India | 326.2 | -4.20 |
| BHEL | 263.8 | -3.60 |
| JainIrrigatn | 100.35 | -3.51 |
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