The markets have extended their positive rally for a fourth consecutive week with the Sensex now posting more than 10 per cent gain on a YTD basis. The year 2012 has started off on an excellent note and the Indian markets have been amongst the top performing global indices this year.
| Benchmark Indices | |||
| Index | 20-Jan-12 | 27-Jan-12 | % Change |
| SENSEX | 16739.01 | 17233.98 | 2.96 |
| NIFTY | 5048.60 | 5204.70 | 3.09 |
| Hang Seng | 20110.37 | 20501.67 | 1.95 |
| Nikkei | 8766.36 | 8841.22 | 0.85 |
| Shanghai | 2319.12 | 2319.12 | 0.00 |
| Dow Jones* | 12623.98 | 12734.60 | 0.88 |
| S&P 500* | 1314.50 | 1318.43 | 0.30 |
| NASDAQ* | 2788.33 | 2805.28 | 0.61 |
| Bovespa* | 61926.70 | 62953.10 | 1.66 |
| FTSE* | 5741.15 | 5795.20 | 0.94 |
| DAX* | 6416.26 | 6539.85 | 1.93 |
| CAC* | 3328.94 | 3363.23 | 1.03 |
| * closing till Thursday | |||
In fact the broader market indices like the small-cap and the mid-cap have outpaced the Sensex, suggesting that it’s not just the bigwigs that are fuelling this rally, but that the smaller names have also had a very crucial part to play. The mid-cap and small-cap indices have notched up healthy gains of 15 per cent and 13 per cent respectively.
The tone of the past week was majorly dictated by the RBI’s decision to cut back on the CRR in order to infuse some much needed liquidity back into the system. While most analysts and experts on the streets expected the RBI to refrain from undertaking any cut-backs in the rate on January 24, the final decision to cut the CRR by 50 bps came as a surprise and the markets cheered the development.
Key Global Indicators | |||
| Index | 20-Jan-12 | 27-Jan-12 | % Change |
| Gold | 27295 | 27832 | 1.97 |
| Silver | 53413 | 56876 | 6.48 |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | 111.12 | 111.23 | 0.10 |
| Crude Oil (Nymex) | 99.83 | 100.34 | 0.51 |
However, going forward the RBI’s outlook on the overall economy with respect to inflation and fiscal deficit situation is very cautionary. In its policy review the RBI has mentioned that food inflation may bounce back soon and has further raised concerns over the non-abating inflation on petroleum and manufactured goods. It has also nudged the government to de-regulate the diesel prices in order to reduce the subsidy burden and consequently keep the fiscal deficit in check.
On the global front, the mood has turned very mixed and there isn’t any clarity on the news and developments coming in from Europe and the US. In the US, after starting off the New Year on a positive note, the stocks this week have ended flat as investors took some profits off their investments. One of the major developments there was the Fed’s decision to keep the interest rates near the zero levels through late 2014, which is a huge positive for the markets there and worldwide. Europe is, as usual, at its uncertain best. While Greece’s talks with its private lenders are going smooth, the IMF has raised fresh concerns over the zone’s financial health and said that the crisis in Europe could severely impact the global growth prospects.
Consequently, it has sharply cut its global growth rate forecast for 2012 from 4 per cent to 3.3 per cent. The projected growth rate for the year 2013 is now 3.9 per cent. The IMF warned that global growth would come in about two percentage points below its already soft forecast if the European leaders allowed the crisis to festerl.
| Currency Rate | |||
| Index | 20-Jan-12 | 27-Jan-12 | % Change |
| USD | 50.47 | 49.65 | -1.63 |
| EURO | 65.23 | 65.04 | -0.30 |
| GBP | 78.04 | 77.83 | -0.27 |
| JYP (per 100) | 65.39 | 64.45 | -1.44 |
Moving on, the rupee seems to be convincingly winning its battle against the dollar as the year progresses. The rupee has appreciated further by around 2 per cent this week as investors pumped in more money into the equity markets and shunned the dollar. As a result of the positive inflows this week, the FII net investments in equity now stand at Rs 1,889 for the week ended January 20, 2012 and for the month of January the same now stands at Rs 7,777.94 crore.
Among the sectoral indices, the capital goods sector was amongst the top gainers for the week, notching up nearly 6 per cent gains. The auto and IT companies came in next at 4 per cent gains. The interest-sensitive realty index was the only one treading in the negative zone.
Top Gainers | ||
| Scrip | CMP | % Change (WoW) |
| Suzlon | 28.55 | 25.49 |
| IB Real Esta | 70.8 | 20.92 |
| Essar Oils | 62 | 19.98 |
| JSW Energy | 53 | 19.66 |
| Renuka Sugar | 39.25 | 16.64 |
| AurobndoPhrm | 112.9 | 16.57 |
| OrientalBank | 258.1 | 16.21 |
| SAIL | 105 | 15.23 |
| BankofIndia | 353 | 15.22 |
| UNION BANK | 215.45 | 14.51 |
| Top Losers | ||
| Scrip | CMP | % Change (WoW) |
| UNITED BREW | 415.1 | -6.95 |
| PidiliteInds | 137.15 | -6.22 |
| Alstom Proj | 354.05 | -6.04 |
| Videocon Ind | 177.75 | -5.78 |
| Adani Power | 84.15 | -4.43 |
| Hero Honda | 1821.9 | -4.15 |
| Ranbaxy Labs | 443.75 | -4.15 |
| Adani Enter | 422.95 | -3.94 |
| BharatElectr | 1437.4 | -3.92 |
| Apollo Hspt | 600.5 | -3.89 |
Corporate Happenings
Mon, 30th Jan
| Tue, 31st Jan
| Wed, 01st Feb | Thu, 02nd Feb | Fri, 03rd Feb | Sat, 04th Feb | Sun, 05th Feb |
Given the scenario we urge investors to start booking partial profits on investments that have yielded significant gains over these past few weeks. The markets are likely to turn volatile as the Q3 results’ season continues ahead.
Experts have started warning about an imminent correction citing overbought levels. Some reversal is a given after a strong advance. So, some softening is not ruled out next month. It would be tough to predict the market’s direction in the short term.
The Nifty has to sustain above its 200-DMA to maintain the winning tempo. FII inflows will be another crucial factor to keep on one’s radar. State elections, which kick off from Saturday, could also have a sentimental impact on our market. The outcome of the UP elections will be keenly followed. The Union Budget will be another key event.
Globally, the eurozone credit crisis continues to play spoilsport. The global factors are very jittery now with the IMF downgrading its growth forecasts. There also seems to be no clarity on Greece’s efforts to resolve issues with its private lenders. In the US, things remain sanguine at best. The trajectory of China’s economy is also being tracked closely. Things could turn quiet and choppy for a while as earnings will continue to pour in. Uncertainty will prevail over a host of tricky issues. Therefore, one must not get too excited. Exercise restraint.
Weekly Technical Analysis of the Indian Stock & Share Market
Most Active Stocks
The 20 most active stocks traded in terms of value of shares traded and their weekly % change.
| Security Name | Close | % Change |
| STATE BANK | 2040.60 | 5.57 |
| LARSEN & TOUBRO | 1381.50 | 8.40 |
| ICICI BANK | 887.95 | 5.40 |
| AXIS BANK | 1073.05 | 6.34 |
| RELIANCE INDS | 820.40 | 3.50 |
| TATA MOTORS | 239.85 | 9.47 |
| INFOSYS | 2725.00 | 5.26 |
| TATA STEEL | 458.75 | 5.08 |
| MARUTI SUZUKI | 1210.65 | 9.71 |
| TCS | 1108.75 | 2.70 |
| YES BANK | 326.00 | 9.43 |
| DLF | 211.60 | -1.13 |
| RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE | 529.90 | 10.32 |
| UNITED SPIRITS | 658.85 | 5.70 |
| HERO MOTOCORP | 1818.45 | -6.59 |
| ITC | 201.80 | 0.24 |
| JSW STEEL | 662.15 | 2.32 |
| HDFC BANK | 484.20 | -1.30 |
| MAHINDRA & MAHIN | 700.10 | 6.56 |
| BHEL | 273.60 | -0.06 |
Biggest Weekly % Gainers
The following list shows the stocks (over Rs.10/share) that had the biggest gains over last week. Gains are measured on a percentage basis. For example, a stock moving from 20 to 25 had a 5 point or 25% gain. Often stocks appearing on this list had some type of positive news (e.g., big earnings report, new product announcement, etc.).
| Security Name | Close | % Change |
| PTC (I) FINANCIAL SERVICES | 16.60 | 48.88 |
| PAREKH ALUMINEX | 275.90 | 33.74 |
| STRIDES ARCOLAB | 505.70 | 30.27 |
| SANWARIA AGRO OILS | 17.30 | 29.59 |
| PBA INFRASTRUCTURE | 47.30 | 27.49 |
| ZENSAR TECHNOLOG | 174.65 | 26.33 |
| GOENKA DIAMOND & JEWELS | 56.10 | 26.07 |
| TTRF | 327.15 | 25.75 |
| KOPRAN | 20.15 | 24.00 |
| TRIVENI ENGG | 20.35 | 22.59 |
| PATEL INTEGRATED LOGISTICS | 28.65 | 22.44 |
| JSW ENERGY | 53.00 | 22.26 |
| ALCHEMIST | 81.15 | 21.39 |
| STERLING BIOTECH | 15.65 | 21.32 |
| EVEREST KANTO CYLINDER | 38.60 | 21.00 |
| WELSPUN (I) | 42.95 | 20.99 |
| SHASUN PHARMA | 60.65 | 20.58 |
| INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES | 193.50 | 20.45 |
| ESS DEE ALUMINIUM | 180.10 | 20.07 |
| ESSAR OIL | 62.45 | 19.98 |
| TILAKNAGAR INDS | 44.95 | 19.07 |
| GAMMON (I) | 53.85 | 18.87 |
| IVRCL ASSETS & HOLDINGS | 38.35 | 18.00 |
| JAYANT AGRO | 106.30 | 17.33 |
| JINDAL SOUTH WEST HOLDINGS | 542.70 | 17.23 |
| A2Z MAINTENANCE & ENGINEERING SERVICES | 127.50 | 17.13 |
| MADHUCON PROJECTS | 60.65 | 16.97 |
| VARDHMAN POLYTEX | 84.70 | 16.91 |
| KALE CONSULTANTS | 140.45 | 16.60 |
| ORIENT GREEN POWER COMPANY | 14.05 | 16.60 |
| SINTEX INDS | 83.35 | 16.57 |
| NCC | 56.85 | 16.50 |
| SUZLON ENERGY | 28.60 | 16.26 |
| DHAMPUR SUGAR MI | 37.60 | 16.05 |
| INDO RAMA SYNTH | 34.50 | 15.77 |
| SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE | 33.70 | 15.61 |
| AARTI INDS | 57.05 | 15.60 |
| SARDA ENERGY & MINERALS | 122.65 | 15.33 |
| GVK POWER & INFRASTRUCTURE | 15.90 | 15.22 |
| SHIPPING CORPN | 68.35 | 15.16 |
| JM FINANCIAL | 15.40 | 14.93 |
| STEEL AUTHORITY | 105.20 | 14.85 |
| JUPITER BIOSCIENCE | 13.20 | 14.78 |
| NELCAST | 30.75 | 14.53 |
| BALRAMPUR CHINI | 47.60 | 14.42 |
| BAJAJ HINDUSTAN | 34.85 | 14.26 |
| ROLTA INDIA | 78.95 | 14.17 |
| RUSHIL DECOR | 154.45 | 14.07 |
| HIMATSINGKA SEID | 32.80 | 13.89 |
| HINDUJA FOUNDRIES | 73.20 | 13.84 |
| GUJ FLOUROCHEM | 485.15 | 13.80 |
| ARIES AGRO | 83.40 | 13.70 |
| SUNIL HITECH ENGINEERS | 79.35 | 13.44 |
| SESA GOA | 214.75 | 13.32 |
| SHREE RENUKA SUGARS | 39.25 | 13.28 |
| IVRCL | 49.50 | 13.14 |
| AUROBINDO PHARMA | 113.00 | 13.06 |
| ORIENTAL BANK | 259.35 | 13.06 |
| TULSI EXTRUSIONS | 11.70 | 13.04 |
| DEWAN HOUSING | 229.25 | 13.04 |
| HIND DORR-OLIVER | 33.60 | 12.94 |
| VASCON ENGINEERS | 52.10 | 12.65 |
| FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES (I) | 729.40 | 12.38 |
| TATA TELESERVICE | 15.95 | 12.32 |
| BATA (I) | 656.35 | 12.31 |
| PITTI LAMINATIONS | 67.15 | 12.10 |
| IL&FS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS | 210.20 | 12.08 |
| MAHANAGAR TELEPH | 30.35 | 11.99 |
| IDEA CELLULAR | 94.30 | 11.86 |
| NESCO | 670.25 | 11.75 |
| CONTAINER CORPOR | 964.05 | 11.75 |
| INDRAPRASTHA GAS | 353.50 | 11.62 |
| TWILIGHT LITAKA PHARMA | 29.80 | 11.40 |
| PRAJ INDS | 90.90 | 11.40 |
| HIND CONSTRUCTION CO | 23.50 | 11.37 |
| DENA BANK | 67.65 | 11.27 |
| IFCI | 28.15 | 11.26 |
| AHMEDNAGAR FORGI | 132.55 | 11.15 |
| REPRO INDIA | 195.80 | 11.03 |
| ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT | 35.75 | 11.02 |
| FIRST LEASING | 62.45 | 11.02 |
| CAMLIN | 38.00 | 10.95 |
| MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS | 283.80 | 10.90 |
| S KUMARS NATIONWIDE | 34.95 | 10.78 |
| SYNDICATE BANK | 95.95 | 10.73 |
| BANK OF INDIA | 352.75 | 10.55 |
| EXCEL CROP CARE | 145.65 | 10.51 |
| KSK ENERGY VENTURES | 54.20 | 10.50 |
| INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE | 70.80 | 10.45 |
| GAYATRI PROJECTS | 139.30 | 10.42 |
| GRAVITA (I) | 573.60 | 10.36 |
| RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE | 529.90 | 10.33 |
| TIMBOR HOME | 28.35 | 10.31 |
| INDIA CEMENTS | 83.55 | 10.30 |
| THANGAMAYIL JEWELLERY | 163.80 | 10.27 |
| NEYVELI LIGNITE | 87.80 | 10.23 |
| MPHASIS | 380.90 | 10.23 |
| BL KASHYAP & SONS | 12.45 | 10.18 |
| ATUL | 180.25 | 10.14 |
| DPSC | 15.75 | 10.14 |
| ARSHIYA INTERNATIONAL | 147.20 | 10.10 |
| UNION BANK | 215.05 | 10.00 |
Biggest Weekly % Losers
The following list shows the stocks (over Rs.10/share) that had the biggest losses over last week. Losses are measured on a percentage basis. For example, a stock moving from 20 to 15 had a 5 point or 25% loss. Often stocks appearing on this list had some type of negative news (e.g., bad earnings report, lower analyst rating, product delay announcement, etc.).
| Security Name | Close | % Change |
| DALMIA BHARAT ENTERPRISES | 133.25 | -11.40 |
Stocks with Bullish Engulfing Patterns.
The following stocks have been trending downward in the short and intermediate terms and have formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The probability of an upward reversal in prices has increased.
| Security Name | Close |
| VAKRANGEE SOFTWARE | 339.05 |
Stocks with Bearish Engulfing Patterns.
The following stocks have been trending upward in the short and intermediate terms and have formed a bearish engulfing pattern. The probability of a downward reversal in prices has increased.
| Security Name | Close |
| VIDEOCON INDS | 178.20 |
| SUPREME INDS | 174.15 |
| SIMPLEX INFRASTR | 193.15 |
| REDINGTON (I) | 79.60 |
| RANBAXY LABS | 443.90 |
| PRICOL | 15.10 |
| PIRAMAL HEALTHCARE | 403.50 |
| GUJ APOLLO INDS | 143.95 |
| GATI | 32.45 |
| ALSTOM PROJECTS | 354.20 |
% Volume Change
The following list shows all stocks whose volumes surged by more than 100% this week compared to the previous week. Upward price movement on large volume change is a bullish (positive) sign for the stock if the stock has been flat or trending downward. Downward price movement on large volume change is a bearish (negative) sign for the stock if the stock has been flat or trending upward. Stocks are arranged in descending order of volume change.
| Security Name | Close | % Change | Volume | % Change |
| ZENSAR TECHNOLOG | 174.65 | 26.32 | 655109 | 2806 |
| SARDA ENERGY & MINERALS | 122.65 | 15.32 | 483817 | 1757 |
| PAREKH ALUMINEX | 275.90 | 33.73 | 605376 | 1392 |
| STRIDES ARCOLAB | 505.70 | 30.26 | 5888381 | 1195 |
| NESCO | 670.25 | 11.75 | 898854 | 1037 |
| PBA INFRASTRUCTURE | 47.30 | 27.49 | 399156 | 699 |
| SHASUN PHARMA | 60.65 | 20.57 | 706587 | 571 |
| EXCEL CROP CARE | 145.65 | 10.50 | 127643 | 565 |
| ATUL | 180.25 | 10.14 | 198797 | 410 |
| UNION BANK | 215.05 | 10.00 | 19260936 | 403 |
| HIND DORR-OLIVER | 33.60 | 12.94 | 2233942 | 306 |
| JSW ENERGY | 53.00 | 22.26 | 23626348 | 295 |
| TIMBOR HOME | 28.35 | 10.31 | 47454 | 274 |
| TULSI EXTRUSIONS | 11.70 | 13.04 | 462479 | 272 |
| KSK ENERGY VENTURES | 54.20 | 10.49 | 821543 | 270 |
| REPRO INDIA | 195.80 | 11.02 | 128902 | 265 |
| IVRCL ASSETS & HOLDINGS | 38.35 | 17.99 | 1065558 | 242 |
| ESS DEE ALUMINIUM | 180.10 | 20.06 | 313246 | 240 |
| NELCAST | 30.75 | 14.52 | 484439 | 230 |
| VASCON ENGINEERS | 52.10 | 12.64 | 329768 | 206 |
| MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS | 283.80 | 10.90 | 336984 | 197 |
| MADHUCON PROJECTS | 60.65 | 16.97 | 348674 | 194 |
| KALE CONSULTANTS | 140.45 | 16.60 | 1053498 | 185 |
| ACTION CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT | 35.75 | 11.02 | 578006 | 182 |
| RUSHIL DECOR | 154.45 | 14.06 | 1880531 | 166 |
| SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE | 33.70 | 15.60 | 8374862 | 163 |
| PITTI LAMINATIONS | 67.15 | 12.10 | 123723 | 155 |
| PATEL INTEGRATED LOGISTICS | 28.65 | 22.43 | 13094 | 150 |
| SANWARIA AGRO OILS | 17.30 | 29.58 | 1307115 | 130 |
| JUPITER BIOSCIENCE | 13.20 | 14.78 | 1513747 | 130 |
| TTRF | 327.15 | 25.75 | 599059 | 122 |
| BANK OF INDIA | 352.75 | 10.54 | 8064586 | 111 |
| INDO RAMA SYNTH | 34.50 | 15.77 | 261248 | 109 |
| KOPRAN | 20.15 | 23.99 | 336835 | 104 |
| JM FINANCIAL | 15.40 | 14.92 | 7762908 | 102 |
New Intermediate Uptrend
Prices of stocks (and other entities) rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices.
The following list shows all stocks & indices beginning a new intermediate uptrend. A new intermediate uptrend normally begins with an upside breakout when demand outstrips supply after a series of falling tops and bottoms.
| Security Name | Close |
| ANDHRA SUGARS | 130.45 |
| ASHOK LEYLAND | 27.25 |
| AUTOLINE INDS | 137.70 |
| AXIS BANK | 1073.05 |
| BHARAT PETROLEUM | 577.30 |
| BHARTI AIRTEL | 374.60 |
| BHUSHAN STEEL | 349.75 |
| BL KASHYAP & SONS | 12.45 |
| D-LINK (I) | 19.40 |
| DEVELOPMENT CREDIT BANK | 43.00 |
| DEWAN HOUSING | 229.25 |
| EIH | 89.90 |
| FEDERAL-MOGUL GOETZE (I) | 222.20 |
| GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES | 18.10 |
| GREAT EASTERN SHIPPING | 233.40 |
| GUJ MINERAL | 186.25 |
| HIMATSINGKA SEID | 32.80 |
| HIND DORR-OLIVER | 33.60 |
| HIND ZINC | 133.90 |
| HT MEDIA | 134.95 |
| IDBI | 100.70 |
| IFCI | 28.15 |
| INDIAN OIL CORP | 289.25 |
| INDO RAMA SYNTH | 34.50 |
| ING VYSYA BANK | 336.50 |
| J&K BANK | 799.95 |
| JAYANT AGRO | 106.30 |
| JHS SVENDGAARD LABORATORIES | 38.50 |
| JK CEMENT | 114.00 |
| JSW ENERGY | 53.00 |
| KIRLOSKAR BROTHERS | 135.70 |
| KOPRAN | 20.15 |
| LARSEN & TOUBRO | 1381.50 |
| LLOYDS ELEC | 46.80 |
| LUPIN LABS | 467.00 |
| MOTILAL OSWAL MF - MOTILAL OSWAL MOST M50 ETF | 69.16 |
| MPHASIS | 380.90 |
| NCL INDS | 40.45 |
| NESCO | 670.25 |
| NEYVELI LIGNITE | 87.80 |
| NIFTY BENCHMARK EXC. TRD F | 524.75 |
| NITESH ESTATES | 18.25 |
| NOIDA TOLL BRIDG | 23.00 |
| OIL (I) | 1200.50 |
| ONGC | 278.30 |
| ORCHID CHEM | 171.35 |
| PAREKH ALUMINEX | 275.90 |
| PIPAVAV DEFENCE AND OFFSHORE ENGINEERING CO | 71.15 |
| PITTI LAMINATIONS | 67.15 |
| POLYPLEX CORPN | 186.10 |
| PUNJ LLOYD | 52.65 |
| RAIN COMMODITIES | 33.60 |
| S KUMARS NATIONWIDE | 34.95 |
| SADBHAV ENGINEERING | 128.10 |
| SAREGAMA (I) | 69.00 |
| SASKEN COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES | 111.55 |
| SHIPPING CORPN | 68.35 |
| SHIV-VANI OIL & GAS EXPLORATION SERVICES | 204.60 |
| SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE | 597.70 |
| SOBHA DEVELOPERS | 255.45 |
| SONA KOYO STEERI | 13.70 |
| SRI ADHIKARY TV | 77.50 |
| STATE BANK | 2040.60 |
| STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES | 37.55 |
| TATA TELESERVICE | 15.95 |
| TECH MAHINDRA | 637.35 |
| THERMAX | 502.60 |
| TTRF | 327.15 |
| TULSI EXTRUSIONS | 11.70 |
| UCO BANK | 67.70 |
| UNITED BANK OF INDIA | 63.50 |
| VASCON ENGINEERS | 52.10 |
| YES BANK | 326.00 |
New Intermediate Downtrend
Prices of stocks (and other entities) rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices.
The following list shows all stocks beginning a new intermediate downtrend. A new intermediate downtrend normally begins with a breakdown when supply soaks up all demand after a series of rising tops and bottoms.
| Security Name | Close |
| HIMADRI CHEMICALS & INDS | 45.90 |
| SURANA INDS | 382.55 |
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